Witness history! Electric car sales surpassed gasoline cars

Previously, we discussed the topic of new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rates, and I wonder if anyone still remembers that.

In April, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released data on the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Let's review the specific content again.

The CPCA data from April 1st to 14th showed that the new energy retail penetration rate was 50.39%, and the new energy wholesale penetration rate was 50.19%, both exceeding half! People buying fuel vehicles officially became the minority.

At that time, many people thought there was nothing to cheer about, as it was just data from two weeks, which was not enough to serve as a strong basis for the overall development trend of new energy.

Indeed, from a more rigorous perspective, two weeks of data is indeed a bit scarce.

After three months, more referential data has arrived.

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According to the preliminary statistics released by the CPCA, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of passenger cars in the market were 1.729 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2%. The cumulative retail sales so far this year were 11.568 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

During the same period, from July 1st to 31st, new energy retail sales were 879,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and a 3% increase compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year were 4.991 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34%.

Based on this data, the retail sales proportion of new energy vehicles in July 2024 reached 50.84%.

If you find this data a bit complicated, we can see another piece of evidence on the Weibo post of He Zhiqi, the Executive Vice President of BYD Company Limited.BYD Co., Ltd. Executive Vice President He Zhiqi directly confirmed and issued a statement saying: "In July, the terminal insurance penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 50.8%, marking the true mainstream status of new energy vehicles and making fuel vehicles a minority.

If, in April, the idea of new energy vehicles "replacing" fuel vehicles was still a vague rumor, then this time, with fuel vehicles becoming a minority, it can almost be considered a foregone conclusion.

Let me analyze it for everyone.

Is the "big trend" of fuel vehicles really over?

In the past, people always took the "big trend" of fuel vehicles being over as a rumor, but the facts have proven that this matter is not as simple as a "rumor."

After all, the data has proven that fuel vehicles are indeed not viable anymore.

Even though some large car manufacturers are calling for "equal rights for oil and electricity," the different taxes and rights for oil and electricity have already become a settled situation.

Under such a background, the gap between the high growth of new energy vehicles and the negative growth of fuel vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent.

This is not a personal point of view, but the data has already revealed everything.

The growth of new energy has been mentioned earlier, and in contrast, the performance of conventional fuel vehicles in July formed a sharp contrast with the new energy vehicle market in July. From the data, in July, the retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles were 840,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and a month-on-month decrease of 7%. From January to July, the retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles were 6.57 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.Without my saying, it's evident to everyone, isn't it?

The current performance of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is a true depiction of "ice and fire."

Moreover, although the "bonus" of new energy is not as obvious as before, the national policy still favors new energy vehicles.

For instance, the passenger car scrapping and renewal policy of "trade-in for new" has gradually taken effect. Driven by this policy, many users will be more inclined to purchase new energy vehicles, which is undoubtedly a double blow to the fuel vehicle market.

At present, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July has reached 51.1%, achieving a monthly breakthrough of over 50% for the first time, a significant increase of 15 percentage points compared to the penetration rate of 36.1% in the same period last year. This is sufficient to illustrate that the competitive disadvantage of fuel vehicles in the current market is becoming more and more apparent.

Why is the penetration of new energy vehicles so fast?

When discussing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in April, it was mentioned that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the past two years has been very fast.

Especially since the beginning of this year, new energy vehicles seem to have been equipped with a "big motor," almost ready to take off.

So, what exactly are the reasons that have made the penetration pace of new energy vehicles so rapid? There are many reasons for this. Let's get straight to the point.

On one hand, the industrial chain advantage of China's automotive manufacturing industry is becoming stronger and stronger. In areas such as batteries, electric motors, and chips, they are basically self-developed, and they will not be "strangled" as in the past.Without delving into other aspects, let's focus on the current plug-in hybrid technology of brands. Not only is it not being "held hostage" by others, but currently, 78% of the global plug-in hybrid market is in the hands of Chinese plug-in hybrids.

Of course, objectively speaking, self-developing chips might still be somewhat lacking at present, but overall, the trend is positive.

On the other hand, driven by new energy vehicle policies and new quality productive forces, the enthusiasm of domestic brands in the field of new energy is also a far cry from what it used to be.

In the past, many car manufacturers might have been waiting and seeing, but now they are essentially exerting their full strength to move forward. If you don't believe it, you can look at how many new cars BYD and Geely have launched this year.

Not to mention, let's talk about BYD, the "inspirational brother" recognized in the car circle. BYD has just released its fifth-generation DM technology, with a vehicle fuel consumption of only 2.9L per 100 kilometers when the battery is depleted, and a comprehensive range of up to 2100 kilometers, which has directly "outperformed" many fuel vehicles.

The outstanding performance has led to a rapid increase in BYD's sales. In July, BYD sold a total of 342,383 new vehicles, a significant year-on-year increase of 30.6%, and directly "captured" more than a third of the new energy passenger car market share. This strength is self-evident, isn't it?

The strong performance of domestic brands in the new energy field has also made consumers very "enthusiastic" at present.

According to survey data, among the 10.8% of consumers who plan to buy a car in the next six months, the proportion choosing "hybrid" cars has reached 39.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous period; the proportion choosing "pure electric" cars is 14.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous period; the proportion choosing "fuel" cars is 36.2%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous period.

In conclusion, it seems that 50% is a critical point for the "qualitative change" in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and monthly data is also more favorable evidence that can prove the "replacement" of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles is no longer just a rumor.Of course, the real "substitution" won't come that quickly, but we have to admit that the era of fuel-powered vehicles is indeed coming to an end.